Three renowned scientists—Papaia, Banani, and Ravioli—along with their assistant Igor, work at the NASAL observatory.
Ravioli accidentally bought a book, which turned out to be quite interesting.
They are discussing Ravioli’s book.
Banani: I didn’t think studying history was so complex! But in the end, how do they all agree on whether an event actually happened or not? I think I heard you mention “probability.”
Ravioli: Exactly! Historians can’t go back in time to verify events firsthand, so they work with probabilities. They analyze available sources, compare testimonies, and assess how plausible an event is based on the evidence. If a fact is confirmed by multiple independent and consistent sources, it is considered highly probable.
Banani: And how do they determine whether an event is true or not? Do they use numbers, like 50%, or do they have some kind of “map”?
Ravioli: Ah, I see! Historians use a probability scale to classify events. Generally, they categorize events as follows:
“Certain”: When there is overwhelming evidence, and no one doubts it.
“Almost certain”: When the evidence is very strong, but there’s still a small margin of uncertainty.
“Highly probable”: When most of the evidence points in one direction, but alternative explanations exist.
“Possible”: When some evidence exists, but there are also many uncertainties.
“Unlikely”: When the evidence is scarce or contradictory.
“Highly unlikely”: When the evidence is weak or almost nonexistent.
“Impossible”: When something contradicts established historical facts or is blatantly false.
The more an event meets the criteria we discussed earlier, the higher it ranks on this scale.
Banani: So, studying history is different from math; it’s more like a trial, where the historians are the jurors.
Ravioli: Exactly! In math, you can prove something with absolute certainty, while in history, you have to rely on evidence and interpretation. Historians, just like jurors in a courtroom, analyze testimonies, check the consistency of sources, and assess which explanation is the most probable. They can’t go back in time to see what happened, so they have to reconstruct events as rigorously as possible using the historical method.
Igor: So, Papaia, thanks to the historical method, you might finally solve the mystery of… where you put your glasses while you were looking for them!
🤣🤣🤣